The System: Extreme TMA (15M Candles).
The market, like a pendulum, is a never ending sequence of extremes. It forever tries to reach the mean but never succeeds, constantly overshooting it´s mark, reversing and trying it again but always failing to reach balance. This system attempts to capture those extremes. It is a compendium of my understanding of the market, brought to it´s simplest expression. Up front I will say that this is not a fully tested system. That´s what we will be doing in the coming weeks and months.
The principles are not complicated. The first indicator, the smoothed TMA shows us the average of the path that the price action in the market is following. As such, it is a backward looking indicator and attempts to determine the future from the recent history. It corrects itself by repainting itself. It has two outer bands that show us the outer boundaries of price movement that we are searching for. Our second indicator, the TMA Slope indicator will show us the relative change in the slope of the center line as compared to previous candles. It determines in which direction a trade must be placed and also shows divergences to price. For example, if price is rising but the slope indicator is dropping, it is announcing a high probability of a drop in price in the near future. The steeper the drop in the indicator the higher the probability of a drop in price. The same concept applies in reverse in the case of a dropping price and a rising slope indicator. A third use of the slope indicator is for exiting purposes as described in the exit options below. The third and final indicator is the MA Crossover Histogram which we will use solely as a visual guide as to the direction of price action. Blue bars indicate Bullish price action and red bars indicate Bearish price action.
Important: This system will work with all time frames, but as of of today it has only been extensively tested with 15 minute candles.
Stop Loss Use: There are various options in this department and I won´t recommend any particular one. A natural level to place your SL would be above a previous high for a short and below a previous low for a long. I myself use only an emergency SL very far away from the PA (100 Pips). If a trade goes against me, I will use Recovery Trades to exit the trade at breakeven. Great work has been done in this department by nanningbob. I encourage you to read his work. We will be discussing Recovery in future days.
1- We will first determine trend in the TMA by using the TMA Slope indicator. Ranging TMA (-0.50 to 0.50): Trades can be placed in both directions. Bullish TMA (Above 0.51): Place ONLY Long trades. Bearish TMA (Below -0.51): Place ONLY Short trades.
2- Once trade direction is determined, we will look at the TMA and wait for price to cross one of the 2 outer bands, the top band for a short order or the bottom band for a long order. The further price moves across the bands, the more reliable the trade will be.
3- We will now look at the TMA Slope Indicator and only enter long positions if the Slope value is rising and only enter short positions if Slope value is falling. The steeper the rise or fall on the indicator, the stronger the signal.
4- Finally, we will only take a short trade if price is above the upper TMA band AND testing a resistance level located also above the upper band. We will only take a long trade if price is below the lower band AND testing a support level located also below the lower band. The more distant from the band that price is, the stronger the signal.
Entering the Trade: There are two ways to enter the trade, depending on your risk management profile:
A- Without Tight Stop Loss: If you do not use a tight stop loss (within 30 pips of entry price or less), after complying with the 4 rules mentioned above, place the order after price touches (tests) the support/resistance line at least once.
B- With a Tight Stop Loss: If you use a tight stop loss (within 30 pips of entry price or less), at this point apply to the chart the correct EA of the two supplied. The 5 x 5 Buy EA for a long trade or the 5 x 5 Sell EA for a short trade. Please, be aware that this option will reduce your profit by several pips per trade. The trade off is less risk, since you enter the trade in the desired direction.
The 5 x 5 EA will trigger an order once price crosses the Smoothed 5 period, 5 shift moving average (The White Line on the chart). When the EA triggers and enters the order automatically, it will suspend itself, so it will only enter one order in that direction. Once suspended (you will see "EA is Suspended" on the upper left of your screen), you can remove it from the chart and follow the Exit Rules.
Very Conservative: Close the position when PA touches the center line of the TMA.
Conservative: Close 1/2 of the position when PA touches the center line and close the other 1/2 when either PA touches the opposite outer band OR the TMA Slope indicator closes one bar in the opposite direction of the previous trend.
Normal: Move Stop Loss to breakeven when PA touches the center line of the TMA. Close the position when either PA touches the opposite outer band OR the TMA Slope indicator closes one bar in the opposite direction of the previous trend.
Aggressive: Close the position when either PA touches the opposite outer band OR when the TMA Slope indicator closes one bar in the opposite direction of the previous trend, place a trailing stop above the previous candle for a short or below the previous candle for a long, until stopped out.
Attachments: I am enclosing Templates, a Profile, Indicators and 2 EAs, compressed as a Packet.zip file. Extract it and as usual, place the indicators (.mq4 and .ex4 files) in the Experts/Indicators folder of your MT4 installation. Place the 2 EA files in the Experts folder, not in the Indicators folder. Place the Templates (.tpl files) in the Templates folder and place the Profile (Extreme TMA - 2 Screens folder) in the Profiles folder. The Extreme TMA template is designed to follow one currency pair on one screen. The 2 Screen Profile is designed to follow 18 pairs on 2 screens with the Extreme TMA - Small template on each chart. If you have only one screen and you want to follow 9 pairs, open the 2 Screen Profile, delete 9 charts, arrange the rest to your liking and save the Profile as 1 Screen Profile. The HA (Heiken Ashi) indicator is included. I trade with HA candles. I find them visually superior in showing the start and end of the move. If you want to use it, change your chart to Line Chart and change your line chart color to the same color as the background of the chart, which in my case is black. That will make the line invisible and will show only the Heiken Ashi candles.
That´s it ! The system is simple in concept and easy to trade. I remind you that, aside from my own trading, this system is not hard tested. I recommend that you handle it with care. Use demo accounts or small lots until it shows itself to be consistently profitable and you acquire confidence in it. A trading system will only work consistently if you truly believe in it. As we move forward, I´m sure we will improve it and make it ever more reliable. You can concentrate on one currency pair only with the Extreme TMA template or on multiple pairs with the Extreme TMA - Small template and the profile enclosed.
Good luck and welcome to our New Adventure !
Credits: The following members have collaborated or have made a positive impact on making this system a better one: NanningBob, RealJumper, Zznbrm, X-Man, Favorite, EasyRyder, shahrooz67, Crodzilla, mladen, Paradox.
Labels: Extreme TMA System